Just in:
"AUSTIN, Texas - Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama scrambled to secure more Texas delegates Saturday as the state pushed to settle the outcome of the March 4 caucus.
Clinton was winning about 60 percent support to 40 percent for Obama in the latest stage of a process that prompted frustration and challenges from supporters of both candidates."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080329/ap_o n_el_pr/texas_caucus_8;_ylt=AiLtiZpnZ7tn i0sWAA17ieZh24cA
I picked up a few facts (from Wikipedia) relating to the US Population Cencus
White People 73.9%
HispaniLatinos 13.7% (ignore black)
Black and AA's 12.4%
The thing that baffles me is that Barack Obama has more delegates than Hillary Clinton when everyone knows that Clinton holds a clear majority among Whites.
So I thought I would look at the exit polls and found this really cool site
http://www.theperfectworld.us/cg/exitpol lsum.htm
where there is a breakdown of the exit polls. Aha! Eureka I thought. If (as the exit data says) Obama gets 83.69% of the Black vote...then how come he is winning if that is just 83.69 percent of 12.4%. I know, there are a few assumptions here, but they are at least reasonable assumptions.
1. The Democratic Party mirrors the population of the US
2. The Exit data is even approximately correct
Lets take this a stage further. If Clinton won 62.04% (from the exit poll data) of the White vote*, then that is 62.04% of 73.9%.....wow, she gets 45.8%. I have summarised in the table below
** This %age concurs with the Pennsylvania poll, funnily enough
Clinton Obama
Whites 45.8 28.1
Hisp/Lat 9.4 4.3
Black 2.0 10.4
------ -----
Total %age 57.2 42.8
So if the Primaries mirrored the US population and the exit polls are correct then Hillary Clinton would secure 57.2% of the Democratic vote against Barack Obama's 42.8%. According to the Exit polls HC only got 52% of the vote, so do my calculations infer that Obama managed to rally a disproportionate %age of his supporters? Does it also infer that the result of the Primaries cannot be sustained in a general election?
We all know that Obama has more delegates and we know that he got more of the popular vote, so there has to be something wrong here. Can this really mean that the democratic will of the people has been used, abused or corrupted? Is someone lying to us?
Whoever it is, is being quite successful.
PS. If the table turns out bad, sorry
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